“And the danger in that was that we thought that it was some holiday that we had until 2027 for ourselves. But there could be a war of, quote, necessity, anytime between now and Aug. 1 of 2027, and there can be a war of choice anytime after August of 2027,” the leader of U.S. Indo-Pacom Command told a standing-room-only audience at the Honolulu Defense Forum, referring to the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army.

“We have to be ready now, we have to be ready in 2027, we have to be ready in 2028.”

One way the command will prepare is by incorporating information operations into “every plan, every investment, every operation,” Paparo said. “We don’t bolt information operations on the end. We integrate and suffuse it from the very start.”

Information operations, cognitive operations, and cyber operations as a “salient form of warfare” is one of three “meta trends” Paparo said are reshaping modern conflict.

“Entities can exploit the information environment where perceptions can outpace facts and disrupt decision making—often without firing a shot,” he said.

At the forum, Palauan President Surangel Whipps described Chinese efforts to sour his country’s populace on its relationship with the United States and its decision to recognize Taiwan as a sovereign nation. 

“The narrative that’s being taught [is] that the U.S. militarization of Palau has put a target on Palau, and really that’s a false narrative,” Whipps said. “Because whether the U.S. is helping improve ports, helping improve airports, building over-the-horizon radar, the opportunity is to ensure that we are protected.”

China also reminds Palau that “2027 is coming soon, and soon you won’t have a partner,” Whipps said. “They basically tell us, ‘If you don’t denounce [Taiwan] and join us now, you’ll be left out in the cold.’”

But unlike China, which invests billions of dollars globally on messaging and information operations, in the United States that has “always been something that was sprinkled on top of an existing policy, rather than conceived of… a really central domain of competition, which it is, and Beijing absolutely sees it that way,” Ely Ratner, the former assistant defense secretary for Indo-Pacific security affairs, told Defense One.

Ratner praised Paparo’s decision to prioritize information operations, though he pointed out that the entire United States government needs a strategy.

“China’s ability to shape the narrative really does have an enormous effect on the behavior of other countries,” he said, but noted that unlike China, which has built a false image of itself and maligned the United States in its messaging, the United States does not need to engage in disinformation.

“It’s just about really being clear about the kinds of things that China is doing around the world, and doing it in an effective way, such that it resonates with governments and populations in key regions,” he said. 

And the messaging must be backed up by real policy. But the Trump administration has been moving in the opposite direction, shuttering the State Department office responsible for countering false narratives and gutting the U.S. Agency for Global Media.

Paparo also advocated for a whole-of-government approach.

“The military has a significant role in this, but frankly, it is the elected civilian leaders. It is our diplomats. It’s our other instruments of national power that have an even greater role,” he said. “We’ve got to attack this.”

The Pentagon’s first strike that day used a secret plane disguised to look like a civilian aircraft, officials briefed on the matter told the Times. The exact aircraft has not been revealed, though Reddit users reportedly spotted one such apparently-modified 737 at an airport in the U.S. Virgin Islands in September. 

In search of a precedent, “the United States considers perfidy to be a crime in noninternational armed conflicts,” one legal expert told the Times. To this end, “It charged a Guantánamo detainee before a military commission with that offense over Al Qaeda’s 2000 attack on the U.S.S. Cole, in which militants in a small boat floated a hidden bomb up to the side of the warship while waving in a friendly manner,” said Geoffrey Corn, a retired Army lieutenant colonel and former judge advocate general officer. Several other legal experts and JAG officials offered additional insight. Continue reading (gift link), here. 

The U.S. military’s last known strike on alleged drug-trafficking boats occurred on New Year’s Eve. Those strikes, 35 reported in total, have killed at least 123 people, according to the Defense Department. Mutilated bodies and broken boats have washed ashore in Colombia and Trinidad and Tobago, along with traces of what appear to be marijuana, the Times reported in October and December. 

We have new insight into one lingering post-invasion question: How did the U.S. military get so close to Venezuelan leader Nicholas Maduro without losing any troops during its surprise attack and abduction on Jan. 3? The Russians had supplied Maduro with air-defense equipment, but they appeared to have been almost entirely ineffective on the morning of the attack. American officials now allege “Venezuela was unable to maintain and operate the S-300” Russian system, “as well as the Buk defense systems, leaving its airspace vulnerable,” the New York Times reported separately on Monday. 

What’s more, “photos, videos and satellite imagery found that some air defense components were still in storage, rather than operational, at the time of the attack,” the Times reports. Read more—including video clips and annotated post-attack photos—here (gift link).

Venezuelan blockade analysis: After the U.S. seized a Russian-flagged oil tanker in the North Atlantic on Jan. 7, the incident raises several questions for international observers and U.S. allies, Kevin Rowlands and Caroline Tuckett wrote Monday in a commentary for the London-based Royal United Services Institute. They write, “Legally, it will all come down to a simple question: was the ship Russian or not?” And “Geopolitically, it will come down to a simple statement: might is right.”

“Sanctions are not just paper declarations; they need to be enforced and how this incident is eventually legally assessed will affect how other states justify similar action,” Rowlands and Tuckett advise. However,” If that assessment takes place in an international tribunal, will the losing party honour the outcome? If it is settled ‘out of court’ then others will take note.” Read the rest, here. 

See also: “What the Bella-1 Teaches Us About Targeting Shadow Fleets,” via Jose Macias of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, writing Thursday. 

And for what it’s worth, “We are now 25 days beyond the statutory deadline for the full release of the Epstein files,” justice reporter Scott MacFarlane observed Tuesday on social media. To date, less than 1% of those files have been released by the Justice Department, in apparent contravention of bipartisan Epstein Files Transparency Act. The day of Maduro’s capture, January 3, was the statutory deadline for the Department of Justice to provide Congress with a written justification for any redactions in the Epstein files, as required by the law. The Trump administration has missed both deadlines without consequence. 

Welcome to this Tuesday edition of The D Brief, a newsletter focused on developments affecting the future of U.S. national security, brought to you by Ben Watson and Bradley Peniston. It’s more important than ever to stay informed, so we’d like to take a moment to thank you for reading. Share your tips and feedback here. And if you’re not already subscribed, you can do that here. On this day in 2021, President Trump was impeached for a second time, this time on charges of inciting insurrection during the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol. 

Around the Defense Department

The Pentagon says it has a new artificial-intelligence implementation plan intended to “unleash experimentation, eliminate bureaucratic barriers, [and] focus our investments,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced Monday. 

During a visit to SpaceX in Texas, Hegseth said Elon Musk's xAI platform, Grok, will be added into Pentagon networks as part of the military’s new AI strategy—though this has been known publicly since at least July. “Very soon we will have the world's leading AI models on every unclassified and classified network throughout our department,” Hegseth said Monday. Reuters has a bit more.

The Defense Department also announced a $1 billion investment in L3Harris' Missile Solutions business as part of new “multi-year procurement framework agreements for solid rocket motors.” The idea is to bolster the Pentagon’s “critical missile programs, such as PAC-3, THAAD, Tomahawk, and Standard Missile,” according to a statement Monday. More, here. 

Update: Sen. Kelly sues Hegseth for seeking to demote him over “illegal orders” video. In a 46-page lawsuit filed in federal district court in Washington, D.C., Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., alleges that efforts by the Trump administration to punish him for a video (in which he and others tell troops that they need not follow illegal orders) violate the First Amendment, the separation of powers, due-process protections, and the Speech and Debate clause of the Constitution. Read on, from States Newsroom.

In a separate statement, Kelly said Hegseth’s “unconstitutional crusade against me sends a chilling message to every retired member of the military: if you speak out and say something that the President or Secretary of Defense doesn’t like, you will be censured, threatened with demotion, or even prosecuted.”

Additional reading: In case you missed it, “GSA’s procurement chief is attending negotiations for Ukraine and Gaza,” Nextgov’s Natalie Alms reported Friday. 

Etc.

Quantum cameras could remake space-based intelligence. In a month or two, a Boston-based startup Diffraqtion will test a “quantum camera” for space-based imaging. If it works, it could slash the cost of missile defenses and give smaller NATO allies and partners spy-satellite capabilities that were once exclusive to major powers, Defense One’s Patrick Tucker reported Monday. 

One of Diffraqtion’s cameras is the size of a small suitcase, and is launchable for just half a million dollars. That just might be the key to shooting down highly maneuverable hypersonic missiles, as envisioned by the White House’s Golden Dome effort. The method proposed by Diffraqtion might lower the cost of the imaging systems on space-based interceptors, or even reduce the number needed to do the job. Continue reading, here.